Junior 7/9/2015 Hand 7

Board 7 South Deals Both Vul	♠ A Q J 5 4 ♥ 5 ♦ 2 ♣ A 10 9 7 4 3
♠ 9 6 2 ♥ A 10 8 ♦ K 10 6 5 ♣ 8 6 2	N W E S	♠ 8 3 ♥ K 7 6 3 2 ♦ Q 9 8 7 4 3 ♣ —
	♠ K 10 7 ♥ Q J 9 4 ♦ A J ♣ K Q J 5

NS 6♣; NS 5N; N 5♠; S 4♠; EW 3♦; EW 1♥; Par +800: EW 6♦×−3

West	North	East	South
			1 ♣
Pass	1 ♠	Pass	2 NT
Pass	4 NT	Pass	5 ♦
Pass	6 ♣	All pass

Other tables bid to 3 NT and 5C. There are a number of issues on this hand:
a) What is South's rebid. Standard ACOL says 1 NT with 15-17 and 2 NT with 18-19;
b) Raising the 2 NT to 4 NT should be quantitative saying bid 6 NT if u are max, pard, whereas here it was used and interpreted as Blackwood;
c)Anyone using Blackwood should probably switch to RKCB (Roman Key Card Blackwood) as it gives much more useful information;
d) Over 1 NT rebid or 2 NT jump rebid, most pairs play "Checkback Stayman". This would help locate the major 5-3 fit (which is more important at MPs than teams)
At the tables where slam was not bid it was due to North not valuing their hand properly. If pard is 15-17 and South has 11hcp, on a hcp count it does not look like slam is on. However, HCP fares poorly on hands which have distribution and there is a fit. Here u have both. Let's try a couple of techniques:
1) LTC (Losing Trick Count). This is used when there is a fit. North has 4 losers (KS, KC, AD,AH - u dont need to count the QC as u have 10 of that suit). A minimum opening hand has ~ 7 losers, thus there is a combined 11 losers. Subtract that from 24 gives u the likely playing level, in this case 13 - u should be looking for grand! But wait, opener has rebid saying he is more than minimum!
2) "Perfect minimum". Assume pard has the perfect cards for u. In this case KS, KC, ace red suit. That is a 10 count, yet slam will be lay down. If slam is there with pard having a perfect minimum u should be at least inviting slam. In this case he has said he has another 5 or so hcp, so I wouldn't be inviting, but bidding direct the only question is small or grand.

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