East should just pass 1NT. 3NT may possibly be on if partner is on a maximum, but more likely he will be on a minimum and you may be too high at 2NT.
At another table: p 1h x p 1s ap 1h is a dubious ACOL bid, better would be 1d or 1NT (if not pass). After West's TOD east is strong, 1s however shows <=8hcp. 2NT would be better showing good values and a good heart stop.
Hi Unknown. Several things to consider: a) what form of bridge a)- At MPs u don't have to strive to get to game, whereas at teams/IMPs (especially VUL) u do strive as the net value is favourable for making 600 vs 150 compared go light in 2NT (-100) vs making 1NT (90); b) it may depend what partner accepts on, eg is it only 14hcp maximums, or is it 13&14hcp maximums, or is there discretion whether to accept with 13hcp. Even assuming partner accepts with just a 14hcp maximum, your are in a 25hcp 3NT. I usually regard these as close to 50/50 as to whether they make or not. That is fine, however the problem comes if partner passes and the contract is 2NT. You are now playing a 23-24hcp 2NT, or a 23hcp if partner accepts the invite with 13hcp. 2NT is not certain to make, lets say 20% of the time it fails and thus at MPS u get a bad board vs those that stayed in 1NT. At MPS when u weigh up the "line ball" 3NT and the chance of going light in 2NT the odds favour staying in 1NT. I will do some DDA on this and post the results.
DDA results. If partner accepts on only 14hcp, then the chance of making game is 56%, if they accept on 13 and 14hcp then the chance of making game is 46%. If partner doesn't accept and has 12 or 13hcp then the chance of going light in 2NT is 33%. If partner doesn't accept and has only 12hcp then the chance of going light in 2NT is 42%.
I think it is normal to pass a 12-14 1NT with 11 hcp and a 4333 shape. My normal strategy is to pass 1NT with 11 and no five-card suit unless I have a 4432 hand with a major, when I Stayman and invite. I am not 100% sure that is right but I seem to have two ways to win with the major oriented hand.
On this particular hand I concur with Hesitator's double dummy analysis. I did a matchpoint analysis based on double dummy play for
1. Passing 1NT compared with inviting in NTs
2. Passing 1NT compared with inviting via a Stayman sequence.
The results were
1. Passing 1NT was worth 55% at MPs but -0.04 IMPs at IMPs.
2. Passing 1NT was worth 53% at MPs but -0.10 IMPs at IMPs.
In both cases it was marginally right to try for game at IMPs but not at MPs.
Interestingly it is also slightly better to look for a major fit than not if trying for game. Many don't with 4333 shape. I will often look for weak suits like 10xx and Jxx where if the weakness is duplicated then NTs might be wrong to guide whether or not to try for a major suit fit.
East should just pass 1NT. 3NT may possibly be on if partner is on a maximum, but more likely he will be on a minimum and you may be too high at 2NT.
ReplyDeleteAt another table: p 1h x p 1s ap
1h is a dubious ACOL bid, better would be 1d or 1NT (if not pass). After West's TOD east is strong, 1s however shows <=8hcp. 2NT would be better showing good values and a good heart stop.
I think 2 NT by east responding to 1NT opening is correct or they could miss game if opener is maximum.
ReplyDeleteHi Unknown. Several things to consider: a) what form of bridge a)- At MPs u don't have to strive to get to game, whereas at teams/IMPs (especially VUL) u do strive as the net value is favourable for making 600 vs 150 compared go light in 2NT (-100) vs making 1NT (90);
ReplyDeleteb) it may depend what partner accepts on, eg is it only 14hcp maximums, or is it 13&14hcp maximums, or is there discretion whether to accept with 13hcp.
Even assuming partner accepts with just a 14hcp maximum, your are in a 25hcp 3NT. I usually regard these as close to 50/50 as to whether they make or not. That is fine, however the problem comes if partner passes and the contract is 2NT. You are now playing a 23-24hcp 2NT, or a 23hcp if partner accepts the invite with 13hcp. 2NT is not certain to make, lets say 20% of the time it fails and thus at MPS u get a bad board vs those that stayed in 1NT. At MPS when u weigh up the "line ball" 3NT and the chance of going light in 2NT the odds favour staying in 1NT. I will do some DDA on this and post the results.
DDA results. If partner accepts on only 14hcp, then the chance of making game is 56%, if they accept on 13 and 14hcp then the chance of making game is 46%.
ReplyDeleteIf partner doesn't accept and has 12 or 13hcp then the chance of going light in 2NT is 33%. If partner doesn't accept and has only 12hcp then the chance of going light in 2NT is 42%.
I think it is normal to pass a 12-14 1NT with 11 hcp and a 4333 shape. My normal strategy is to pass 1NT with 11 and no five-card suit unless I have a 4432 hand with a major, when I Stayman and invite. I am not 100% sure that is right but I seem to have two ways to win with the major oriented hand.
ReplyDeleteOn this particular hand I concur with Hesitator's double dummy analysis. I did a matchpoint analysis based on double dummy play for
1. Passing 1NT compared with inviting in NTs
2. Passing 1NT compared with inviting via a Stayman sequence.
The results were
1. Passing 1NT was worth 55% at MPs but -0.04 IMPs at IMPs.
2. Passing 1NT was worth 53% at MPs but -0.10 IMPs at IMPs.
In both cases it was marginally right to try for game at IMPs but not at MPs.
Interestingly it is also slightly better to look for a major fit than not if trying for game. Many don't with 4333 shape. I will often look for weak suits like 10xx and Jxx where if the weakness is duplicated then NTs might be wrong to guide whether or not to try for a major suit fit.